Early box office projections for M3GAN 2.0 are in, and the sequel isn’t shaping up to be as big of a draw as its predecessor. According to Deadline, M3GAN 2.0 is estimated to earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 million domestically over its first three days. For comparison, that figure would be much lower than the original M3GAN, which grossed $30.4 million domestically during its debut back in January 2023. This would be a disappointing turn of events for a franchise that’s looking to go bigger with a more action-heavy follow-up.
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Not only are there some high-profile holdovers still doing strong business (How to Train Your Dragon, 28 Years Later), this weekend also sees the release of the new racing drama F1. Starring Brad Pitt, the Joseph Kosinski-directed film is projected to earn somewhere between $40-50 million domestically.
After the success of the first M3GAN ($180 million worldwide against a $12 million production budget), Universal was quick to move forward with franchise expansions. In addition to the direct sequel, there’s also a spinoff called SOULM8TE in the works. SOULM8TE is currently scheduled to premiere in January 2026.
The M3GAN 2.0 marketing campaign has been notable in the sense that it’s fully embraced the property’s campy tone, leaning heavily into darkly comic and action elements. Trailers and other promotional materials have sold the film more like a traditional summer tentpole, hyping up the showdown between M3GAN and the new evil AI called AMELIA (a premise that is reminiscent of Terminator 2: Judgment Day).
M3GAN 2.0‘s release date is probably the biggest reason why its box office projections are so much lower than the first film. The original M3GAN premiered in the United States in early January on the heels of Avatar: The Way of Water. There wasn’t much else of note playing at that time. In contrast, the sequel is coming out in the middle of summer, which is always a busy time at the multiplex. There are several titles vying for audiences’ attention this time of year, and only so much money to go around. It doesn’t help M3GAN 2.0 that another horror sequel, 28 Years Later, had a record-breaking debut. While M3GAN 2.0 has a specific target audience it’s reaching in marketing, the appetite among general horror fans may not be as high this time around. If M3GAN 2.0 stood alone as the lone genre option, the estimates might have been higher.
People also seem to be saving their hard-earned dollars for the trio of major studio blockbusters coming out in July. The likes of Jurassic World Rebirth and Superman are poised to have very healthy debuts, and The Fantastic Four: First Steps should be a big draw as well. Not all is lost for M3GAN 2.0, however. Though the film appears to be a bit more ambitious in its scope, it would be surprising if the sequel’s budget was significantly larger than the original’s $12 million. That means M3GAN 2.0 shouldn’t need to break the bank in order to become profitable. And if word of mouth is positive, it could end up doing better than expected. Even if M3GAN 2.0 opens in line with these projections, Universal can still feel confident about the franchise moving forward.
